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Tuesday, January 26, 2010

My Take on the 2010 WV Races

Here's a rundown of how I think the WV races will go:

WV-01: Incumbent Democratic Congressman Alan Mollohan is running for re-election. On the Democratic side, Mollohan and Steel Worker RJ Smith are in the running. On the GOP side, Realtor Cindy Hall, GOP Activist Patricia Van Gilder Levenson, former State GOP Chair David McKinley, Coal Mine Contracting Company Executive R. Scott Smith, Custom Furniture Maker Tom Stark, Financial Executive Daniel Swisher, and Attorney Mac Warner are in the running. I expect McKinley to prevail in the Primary with 55% and Mollohan in his Primary 89-11. In this climate, I think McKinley will defeat Mollohan 52-48. GOP GAIN.

WV-02: Incumbent GOP Congresswoman Shelley Moore Capito is running for re-election. The GOP has unified behind Capito. On the Democratic side, Elementary School Principal Virginia Lynch Graf and David Harless are in the running. The Constitution Party has unified behind Teacher Phil Hudok. I expect Graf to prevail in the Primary 87-13 and lost to Capito 63-37. GOP HOLD.

WV-03: Incumbent Democratic Congressman Nick Rahall is running for re-election. On the Democratic side, Rahall and State Delegate Ralph Rodighiero are in the running. On the GOP side, Nurse Anesthetist Lee Bias, Sign Company Sales Executive Marty Gearhart, and Attorney Conrad Lucas are in the running. The Democratic Primary is a tossup. I expect Lucas to prevail over Gearhart and Bias 54-41-5. Whoever the Democrats nominate will defeat Lucas, 57-43 Rahall or 59-41 Rodighiero. DEM HOLD.

1 comment:

  1. Looks good to me. I definitely agree that McKinley pulls it out over Mollohan. The ethics charges about him get big headlines here. You are dead on about Capito---she's a rockstar in WV now. On WV-3, I'd say Rahall wins easily over Rodigherio in the primary but the matchup between he and Lucas in the fall could be interesting. If Big Coal gets behind Lucas like many say they will and national momentum continues like it is then I bet Lucas squeaks it out. With a lot of factors coming together, WV's entire House delegation might be red next fall.